Texas Primary

6:24 PM – Just voted in the primary. A big black mark for Sen. Obama. The woman who I followed into the polling station was a serious Clinton supporter. She was nasty to the Obama supporters outside the precinct building (100 ft and all that) and said, upon entering the building and being asked which primary she wished to vote in, “Do I look like a Republican to you?”

6:30 PM – So far there have been a steady stream of people walking to the Democrat side of the precinct. I was told when I received my caucusing card to expect a crowd. The caucusing is slated to begin at 7:15 but I haven’t the slightest clue when they will start seating people.

6:36 PM – Forgot to mention the news crew outside. I figure that: a) they are waiting for exit polls and; b) this is the closest precinct to their news station. Beyond that, I don’t know nor really care. I wonder though, if the assumed crowd does come, where will they park? And what kind of parking hell will occur once everyone leaves?

6:41 PM – A lot of friendly talking going on. I live in a liberal neighborhood but if yards signs are any indication then this precinct will go for Sen. Clinton. I wonder what the caucus will actually look like? I’m eager to see if I need to beat a Clinton supporter with my laptop for being uppity. I swear I will not let some two-bit Clinton camp worker hijack this caucus, even if I’m the only person on Sen. Obama’s side.

6:45 PM – More white people. White people annoy me.

6:46 PM – Warren Ellis is threatening to change his name to WOLFMANGLER. Or GOATGOUGER. Damn Twitter.

6:48 PM – Youngish 30-something with a soul patch. Beginning to wonder about the sanity of my neighborhood.

6:49 PM – Ah, finally some black people have arrived.

6:50 - 7:22 PM - We waited in line for the caucusing for nearly half an hour. We were the lucky ones as the line continued to increase. By the time we left (we didn't stick around for the delegate election) the line stretched down a forty foot hall and out the door and up the parking lot. I would say somewhere around 150 people were there, along with the TV broadcasters. There were an awful lot of whiteys in line while I noticed only two black couples in the caucus.

8:12 PM - So the races for the Democrats are too close to call for the most part. Sen. Obama leads in Texas while Sen. Clinton leads in Ohio. Vermont has gone to Sen. Obama but Rhode Island hasn't been called yet. This is a bit of a nailbiter night for me, as I want Sen. Obama to take all the states. So now I wait.

Best Live-Blogging Quote

9:24 PM — There is definitely a healthy breeze onstage, as evidenced by Obama’s flapping notepad. Maybe it is the radiance of Hillary’s hate.
- From the Wonkette

What You Don't Know Can Hurt You

That Clinton Competence - Jason Zengerle @ The Plank
Competence - hilzoy @ Andrew Sullivan
What? There Are Rules? - Matt Yglesias

Three posts from three different bloggers all hitting the web at the same time on the competence of the Clinton campaign. The issue sparking this concern on competency is the Texas primacaucus and the surprising revelation that the Clinton camp had no knowledge of how the Texas delegate system worked until earlier this month. According to Zengerle, Hilzoy and Yglesias, apparently the Clinton campaign was counting on the Latino vote in the southern sectors of Texas as a sort of 'firewall' against Sen. Obama. Unfortunately, the way the Texas primacaucus works, it favors more urban area such as Dallas and Houston, which to add insult to injury, hold a large black population. Now, I'm not sure what the standing is in cities like San Antonio, which is predominantly Latino, or Austin, which is distinctly liberal but has a large student population.
The main problem for the Clinton camp though, is that Latinos have traditionally shown a low turn-out during primaries, something that figures heavily into the number of delegates the next primary allocates. Each precinct receives a certain number of delegates that are dependent on the previous two primary elections. So if a precinct had a low turn-out in the last two primaries then that precinct will receive fewer delegates this time around. Moreover, during the last primary in 2006 there were two independents running for governor; one coming from the Republican side and poaching Republican votes, and one, Kinky Friedman, coming from nowhere to poach independents and Democrats. So the delegate count for most precincts is lower this election cycle than in previous cycles.
That the Clinton campaign never took the Texas system into account when boasting it as a firewall state speaks more to their ignorance, and yes, competence, than their ability to predict and adapt to changing circumstances. They had a plan that started and ended with Super Tuesday and have done nothing but scramble ever since. I do hate to say this since I don't think the comparison is completely accurate, but the actions of the Clinton campaign ever since Super Tuesday have reminded me a great deal of the Bush administrations reaction to the changing circumstances on the ground in Iraq. That is to say, the Clinton campaign has gone into a serious bout of denial about Sen. Obama's chances while maintaining their own superiority. Well, after learning about their recent education on the Texas delegate system, I have to say that superiority is seriously mistaken.

Texas Primary Primer, Pt. 2

One thing I forgot to mention when talking about primary elections in Texas. No one in Texas is registered as either a Democrat or a Republican. You are only affiliated with a party when you vote in a primary election and that affiliation only lasts for the rest of that year you voted. In other words, if you vote in the Republican Texas primary in 2008 then you are affiliated with the Republican party for the rest of 2008. That affiliation ends when the calendar year ends. What the affiliation means is that once you have declared your affiliation you cannot vote in another party's primary, run-off election or any other party-affiliated function. If you vote in the Democrat primary then you cannot vote in a Republican run-off contest later that year. In addition, you cannot sign a petition to put someone not of your affiliated party on the ballot.
Now for a general election, like the one this coming November, you can vote for whoever you choose, no matter the party. So what party affiliation means is that you can participate in your affiliated party's actions but not in another party's actions. This also means that even if you are a life-long Republican or Democrat you can decide to vote in another party's primary if you haven't already voted in your party's primary.

The Texas Primary Primer

The Texas Inferno--Why it Helps Obama - Publius @ Obsidian Wings
Everything You Needed to Know About the Texas Delegation Process, Pt. 1 - Philip Martin, Burnt Orange Report
There's No Such Thing as the Texas Primary, Part II: Delegate Projections - MattTX, Texans for Obama
Texas Hold'em - Christopher Orr, The Plank

Here I've collected a series of primers on the Texas primary election this coming March. The pundits have taken to calling it a 'primacaucus': one part primary and one part caucus. At stake are 193 pledged delegates along with another 35 super-delegates. The primary election itself--the normal, ballot casting part of the election--accounts for a 126 delegates. That part is simple enough. But the rest of the pledged delegates are decided by a caucus system that starts right after the primary polls are closed. Candidate loyalists are the ones who will typically stick it out to this point. Precinct caucuses are held and then the fun begins. From the precinct, delegates are sent to the county convention, from county convention to state convention and then finally to the national convention in Denver.
There are 67 of these caucus-decided delegates and that part of the system favors the candidate who has the best ground-game and grassroots organization. So, while there are 193 pledged delegates in total at play in Texas, only the 126 primary-elected delegates are decided on the night of March 4. The final tally doesn't occur until some time in June. So those who simply want to cast their ballot can do so throughout the day of March 4th but those who wish to participate in the caucus as well must cast a ballot in the primary and then wait until the polls close. The common wisdom currently being tossed about, as you can see in some of the sites I've linked to, is that the Texas primary, while thought of as a firewall state by the Clinton campaign, isn't a state one can lock up so easily. Convoluted it may be, but it seems to me that the Texas primary offers one of the better ways of granting a voice to the people in both a popular vote and a more elitist caucus vote.
I hope this helps to of you who are going to vote in the Texas primacaucus next month. I don't know if I will participate in the caucus part of the election but I certainly will cast a ballot in the primary. I have the feeling though that my whole family will be there for the caucus.

Obama Comes to Texas

Ha! Just saw an ad for Sen. Obama running during the commercials for the mid-day news. He's already advertising in this state and the primary is still weeks away.

Texas Primary Primer Coming Soon to a Blog Near You

I'm working on a primer for the Texas primary on March 4th. There have been some good posts up talking about it since the Clinton campaign has seemingly settled on the idea that Texas is a firewall state for them. The whole thing looks a mess but I'll have something up tonight with links for those here in the state who are interested.